MCX CRUDE OIL – Gann & Fibonacci Reveal Next Moves

Gann Fan Analysis:

• The Gann Fan is originating from a significant low (likely April 2020 COVID crash low).
• The price has broken below multiple Gann angles like 1/1, 2/1, and 3/1. This indicates increasing bearish pressure.
• The next Gann supports below are near the 4/1 and 8/1 levels, which align around ₹4300–₹4800 zones.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Downward Targets):

• Based on the recent swing high to low:
• 0.5 retracement = ₹5393 (resistance, already rejected here)
• 0.618 retracement = ₹4310 – a critical support level
• 0.786 retracement = ₹2764 – extreme bearish

Trend Direction:

• Price is trading below both 100 EMA & 200 EMA
• And both EMAs are sloping down, with wide spacing — a classic signal of strong bearish momentum.
• No bullish divergence or price strength confirmation seen yet.

Bearish Bias:

• The price structure is forming lower highs and lower lows.
• The momentum is clearly to the downside.
• A retest of ₹4310 (Fib 0.618) is very likely.

Short-Term Action Zones:

• Resistance ₹5393 (Fib 0.5 level) — Rejection expected again
• Support ₹4800–₹4900 Minor support (Gann + psychological)
• Major Support ₹4310 (Fib 0.618 + Gann confluence zone)
• Bearish Extension ₹2764 Final Fib 0.786 level (only on major crash)

Bullish Reversal Only If:

• Price can reclaim ₹5393 and sustain above it with volume.
• Moving averages crossover back up.

Watch Out For:

• False breakdowns or news-driven moves in crude oil (Geopolitical tensions, OPEC decisions, USD fluctuation).
• A weekly close below ₹4800 would strengthen bearish dominance.