EWT: Will Crude Oil Reach 7000?

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Crude oil is forming impulsive waves ((5)).

After the completion of wave ((3)), the price had started complex running flat of the corrective wave ((4)).
Wave B has crossed the high of wave ((3)), but wave B couldn’t break the low of wave A.

Price has made a failure of swing low, which was a rejection of a downtrend, and crude oil gained momentum.
Price has exceeded the sub-wave B of wave ((4)).

Sub-wave 4 of wave ((5)) is in progress.

If their price breaks out the high of wave 3, we can expect the following target for final sub-wave 6697-6785-6865+. It means the price has bullish sentiments above wave three and vice versa.
Breakout of the parallel channel shows the weakness of the impulsive wave. Note that wave four can never overlap the starting point of wave 1.

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Nifty Outlook: Is This The End Of The Bull Market?

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After breaking the parallel channel, the price entered the value area.

Price has started a seller initiative by going out of the price zone.
Buyers responded more to sellers’ initiatives with an excess.

At this juncture, the price has entered the value area.
The lower band indicates the demand pressure.

If the price does not stay above the lower band at 17250, it could move downwards to the lower levels – 16628-16410, because the price didn’t break the 78.6% level.
Otherwise, the price will surge towards 17369- 17487-17612.

Note that if the price does not break the control line, it can not reach the upper band.

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Nifty Outlook: Will the seller crash the remaining bull?

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Nifty is occurring a corrective wave ((iv)) on the hourly timeframe chart.
It has broken the previous corrective (iv) of a lower degree and price fall to 17377.

The bullish scenario is valid till the price is above 17150.
According to the Elliott wave principle, wave ((iv)) can never enter the price territory of wave ((i)).

Wave ((iv)) has retraced 78.6%, and it can’t retrace more than 78.6% if there is a bull power on the other hand. If the nifty breaks 78.6% at 17156, it will also break the invalidation level point of 17150.

Nifty is creating a downtrend channel, where bull power has controlled by sellers.
If the price breaks out of the channel downtrend, we can see a sharp upward move soon.
However, nifty has to confirm its bull run by breaking the breaking supply zones.

No bullish scenario without breakout of the parallel channel.

If the price breaks the downtrend channel, trader can buy for the following targets of 17435-17618-18125

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Nifty Outlook – Will the bulls cease the falling knife of Nifty?

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Price Action Perspective:
Price is creating a value area where 
supply and demand are equal.
The control line of the value area has provided eight price touches to confirm the price move, and it has provided five reversals.

In this view, Nifty is on the control line of the value area at 17615. Price has drawn a doji candle on the control line.
There are 
seven pieces of evidence of a reversal on the control, so the level of 17615 becomes a key level for traders.

In addition, nifty often gives a gap-up after every powerful doji candle. If it has the potential to reverse the price, nifty can reverse with gap-up. (You can see green circles in the chart)

Nifty could not sustain above the control line, it would start a downward movement till the lower band of the price area. Price seems strong above the control line, and if the price sustains above 17614, we may see a low 17760-17914-18123+.

Important scenario to look at:

Global Scenario:
– Interest rate hike on the card;
QE is ending;
– Tapper is in plan;
Earnings are not as expected;
– Demand getting slow;
– Uncertainty in Russia to US over Ukraine;
KSA and Yemen issue; and
– Many of growth stocks in US are at 52W low; and
– (Minus) 4.1 World GDP

Indian Scenario:
– Reliance shows exception results;
– IT disappointed;– Banking Insurance Realty doing fine;
– Budget is on the cards. Further, it is expected great expending by the GOI in projects to boost economy.
– GOI to push Make in India;
FII selling DII buying (SIP and Retail participants investing)

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EWT: Bigger Picture Analysis Of JK Laxmi Cement

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JK Laxmi cement has accomplished impulsive wave ((3)) and has a complex correction of wave ((4)).
After making a high of 816, the price started forming a corrective channel for wave ((4)).
It has made a low of 529.10, and we can see a price surge to 630.

However, the price reached the upper band of the channel, but it is facing dynamic resistance of the parallel channel.
If the price does not break the parallel channel, we will consider it a lower high(LH).

Wave (4) retraced 38.2%, which is the common retracement.
Before starting a bull trend, the price will create public participants, which can be possible after a retracement. Retracement is nothing but a pullback for bull traders.

If the price rejects from the upper band of the channel, it can come down to 61.8- 78.6%.
After the rejection, if the price reverses from the control line, trader can initiate a buy position for 580-635-678-700+

Note, Safe traders should buy after the clear breakout of the parallel channel. We are not interested in buying before a new lower high, which gives a signal of demand zone.
Breaking down the control line will create a new lower low, which can go up to the upper band or 50%- 61.8%.

I will upload an intraday chart for premium subscribers soon.

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NIFTY Research report: Elliott Wave And Sentiment Analysis

Elliott Wave Analysis

Timeframe: 1 – day

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Wave ((1))
Price has started an impulsive structure on 24 March 2020. It has exceeded the supply pressure by creating demand.
Wave ((1)) formed as a leading diagonal because there was the existence of seller and supply pressure.
All the fundamentals were bearish before this move. So, it was a bit risky to think about a trend change without any proper signal.
Price has made a high of 9989, and the fifth terminating wave completed the wave ((1)). It has started falling downward, and traders thought that price could make another leg down.

Wave ((2))
5th sub-wave has completed the wave ((1)).
Once again, the price hasn’t signaled trend change, and the bearish perspective was less risky than the bullish perspective.
Corrective wave 2 created a sharp correction, but it couldn’t break the 50% level, and the price surged.
Price made a higher low.

Wave ((3))
Price broke the high of wave ((1)) at 9989, which has given evidence of an impulsive atmosphere.
The price is going for a new high with heavy demand pressure, which has crushed supply pressure.
Bullish fundamentals and public participants have skyrocketed towards a new high.

Sub-wave of wave ((3))
Sub-wave 1 is an impulse at 1032.
Sub-wave 2 is and sharp correction.
Sub-wave 3 is an impulse with 161.8Fibonacci Extension.
Sub-wave 4 is a deep correction at 10790.
Sub-wave 5 is the power extended wave at 15431.

Wave ((3)) has made a high of 15431, and public participants started booking profit.

Wave ((4))
After creating a high of 15431, buyers got surprising disappointment.
Price has started falling due to short-term bearish sentiments and the profit booking.
Wave ((4)) is a double zigzag pattern w-x-y, which indicates the single correction was not enough to correct the strong impulse move.
It has an alternation of the triangle.
Price has completed corrective wave ((4)) at 14151.

Wave ((5))
After the accomplishment of wave ((5)), the price started a bullish move.
Price broke wave X, which signaled a bullish atmosphere.
Due to surprising disappointment, the price move is not as strong as we have seen in wave ((3)).

sub-wave of wave ((5))
Wave 1 is a five-wave impulse
Wave 2 is a less time-consuming wave.
Wave 3 is a normal extended wave.
Wave 4 is a deep correction triple zigzag (w-x-y-x-z), and broadning wedge .
Wave 5 is forming and has confirmed its bullish move by breaking wave X.

I have the following reasons to consider the current move as an impulsive wave.
Wave counts without invalidation.
Price broke the X wave of the corrective structure.
Sub-wave 4 of wave ((5)) retraced 61.8% of wave 3. As per rule, the 4th wave can’t retrace more than 78.6% of wave 3.

Scenario 1:
Price is on the bullish momentum, but if price breaks down the wave X to take support, we can expect the following levels: 17790-17528-17316.

Scenario 2:
If the price is refusing for a retracement and continuously creating new highs, we price can go for 18600- 18825+

Timeframe: 1 – hour
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Let’s zoom the 5th impulsive wave of wave ((5)) to know the current situation of the Wave cycle.
The ending point of wave 4 is the starting point of wave 5.

After the accomplishment of, triple zigzag, the price has started an impulsive wave, and it has broken the X wave.
X was had holder the correction, and break out of X wave increased public participant in nifty.

Wave formations of the impulsive wave 5 of wave ((5)).
Wave ((i)) is a leading diagonal.
Wave ((ii)) is a zigzag correction, retraced 50% of wave ((i)).
Wave ((iii)) is a five-wave impulse, where sub-wave v is near to being completed.

After the completion of wave ((iii)), the price will start the corrective wave ((iv)). The question is, how to know if the corrective wave started or not?
The best way to find the starting point of the corrective structure is the breakout of the base channel.
If the price breaks the base channel, it may end near the previous wave (iv). I have already mentioned levels in the daily time-frame analysis.

If the price couldn’t break down the parallel base channel, it can create a new high, but it will give a short pullback to increase public participants.

Price Action Analysis

Timeframe: 1 – hour

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Price has broken out the downtrend channel and started an upward move.
However, the current bullish move looks strong, but the price can’t make a new high without proper retracement.

Nifty can’t get public participants Without trend pause(correction).
If the price breaks the parallel channel, we can expect the following support level: 18232-17944-17604-17261

Please note that the price is bullish above 18250.
If the price takes support on the parallel channel, it can go for 18600-18845+ to touch the upper band of the channel.

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