The Indian market showed resilience in trade today and bounced back in the last half-an-hour of trade even as the global markets witnessed sell-off on US debt ceiling concerns. The strength, back home, was largely on account of dollar inflows after the US national hold established its plan to continue with its amount easing programme. After investing in shares worth Rs 13,057.80 crore in September, foreign institutional investors have bought equities worth Rs 555.20 crore in till October 3. While there is confidence perhaps a segment of members that the market is probably to observe liquidity-driven rally, analysts are not so gung-ho on the leads of Nifty breaching 6,000 and sustaining it for a long time. The market is giving mixed signals, they say. While the Nifty pared losses to close on a flat note today, Bank Nifty which has a higher weightage on the index closed 1.13 per cent lower. Also, the macro economic situation doesn’t warrant the market to move sharply higher due to factors such as subdued domestic demand, monetary tightening and possible cuts in fiscal expenditure. “Our base case has been that the markets will be range-bound at 18,500-20,500 as weak economic and earnings growth caps the upside while hopes of rate cuts and policy measures protect the downside. The markets have rallied sharply since Raghuram Rajan took over as RBI Governor, rising 9 per cent since September 4 and now trade near the top-end of the range. We expect markets to correct 6-8 per cent from current levels as the RBI’s credit policy belies high market expectations,” a BofA-ML report said. Analysts see Nifty in a range of 200 points with stock-specific action this earnings season. “In the short period, the results season, which starts this Friday, is going to be critical. Our view is that markets are not going anywhere as far as October is stressed; we will almost continue at similar levels with stock-specific motion based on the acts and the results,” “Typically in this kind of a scenario when the breadth is showing strength, you will not see big declines happening in the overall market. So, my belief is that we will continue to do this range of about 5,820-5,830 on the downside, give and take a few points, and about 5,950-5,980 on the upside,” he said.
Mr.Guru is a registered investment advisor for Moneymunch, he is a regular guest on popular channels and writes for several newspapers and financial journals. They’ve black magic of stock market analysis because studied charts over 20 years.
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