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BHEL Stock will test 193-195 Very Soon

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bhel-future

BHEL STOCK FUTURE

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Globle: Short term analysis

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In my opinion the top of the up leg from the November lows is in place. We will have the absolute confirmation when price establishes a lower high. Below I show you the SPX weekly momentum indicators, where we can see that the RSI has breached the trend line support in force since the November 16 low. The next intermediate buy signal usually should occur when the RSI and the Stochastic retest the 50 line.

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I rule out a major reversal, instead I maintain the scenario of a retracement of the advance from the November lows. As I discussed last Friday the major reasons that suggest that price has not established a major top are:
  1. The up leg from the November lows has unfolded a corrective 7-wave structure ===> A corrective EWP cannot establish a major Top.
  2. The current pullback is also unfolding a corrective pattern, ===> The intermediate trend remains up.
  3. Retails investors are extremely bearish (I have never seen a major top with an extremely low AAII Bull ratio)
Regarding the potential target, at the moment, since we are in the initial stage of a corrective pattern I can only say that price should establish a bottom in the range 1485 – 200 DMA. (which today stands at 1453) Once a lower high is in place, the next down leg should aim at the 0.382 R = 1500, where probably a large rebound will take place. If bears maintain the sequence of lower high/lows then the following down leg will reach the target box.

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  Therefore, I reiterate that the above “road map” looks very probable as long as the bounce, which began last Friday, establishes a lower high. Regarding the long-term count, I maintain the Triple ZigZag wave (X) scenario. As I have discussed in previous weekly updates since the assumed wave (Z), which began at the November 2012 low is not impulsive I am suggesting that it should unfold an Ending Diagonal, if this is the case on April 11 price has completed the wave (I).   The summation Index, which, peaked at the end of January is already oversold (RSI has crossed the 30 line) and on Friday it has breached the 200 dma. It is remarkable that SPX has been able to establish higher highs with such a weak breadth performance. Going forward since price has just begun a corrective phase, an already oversold Summation Index should prevent a major decline.

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  Lets move on to the current price action. It is reasonable to expect that the rebound from last Thursday LOD to reach the target box delimited between the 20 DMA = 1564 and the 0,618 retracements = 1574. If it tops at the 20 DMA the 1×1 extension target for the following down leg would take us to the 0.382 retracement of the advance from the November lows at 1500. EW wise price would be unfolding a ZigZag therefore if lower prices were in the cards probably this initial ZigZag would morph into a Double ZigZag

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  Lastly, VIX on Friday has “issued a Bollinger Band buy equity signal”. Friday’s drop has been larger than I initially thought, moving back below the 200 DMA. I still expect a bottom in the range of the moving averages (10-20-50) or in the worst-case scenario at the rising trend line support in force since the March 14 low. The lower is the retracement, the larger will be the assumed SPX wave (B) rebound. I still think that the pattern that VIX is unfolding does not suggest a major move to the upside, but as long as the sequence of higher lows/highs is maintained the trend remains up. 7 To become a subscriber, subscribe to our free newsletter services. Our service is free for all.
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Lower Top Trend Line at 5840-5851

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NSE ZEE TV & TITAN Tips

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zee

Zee Ent.

Closed above consolidation zone.

Watch 213.25. Grab above this level.

See 218-220 levels.

Titan

Titan Ind

Close = 259.25

Strong Hurdle at 264-266.

Below which it May slide up to 254-251.

 Exit if Crossover above 268 

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Nifty Future Daily View – Be cautious in long at Higher Levels for short term Trend

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canstock3614534

Nifty Future

(Updated on 22.04.13 at 08.30 AM)

Above 5796 see upside up to 5809-5820.

Hurdle at 5825-5833 for Intraday.

If trades above 5833 for 15 minutes and not breaking

5796-5789 then rally up to 5851-5878 possible.

Support at 5769-5761 for intraday.

Once breaks and trades this zone see slide up to 5748-5740.

Crucial support at 5740-5732.

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RBI may cut benchmark lending rate by 0.25% in May

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rbi monetory and credit policy RBI Governor D Subbarao will announce the Monetary Policy Statement for FY14 on May 3, 2013 The Reserve Bank may cut the benchmark short-term lending rate by about 0.25% in its annual monetary policy next month in the backdrop of declining inflation and the urgency to promote growth, say economists.  “Right now, conditions should enable the RBI to cut the repo rate. We expect a cut of 25 basis points (or 0.25%) in its policy in May and may be by another 25 bps in the next review,” HDFC Bank Chief Economist  Barua said.  RBI Governor D Subbarao will announce the Monetary Policy Statement 2013-14 on May 3, 2013.  YES Bank Chief Economist Shubhada Rao said RBI may cut the repo rate or the short-term lending rate by about 0.25% in May as inflation has come down and there is a need to fuel economic growth.  “Taking cue from inflation, we believe that RBI could take this time…To cut rate, particularly, the way we have seen inflation in the past coming down. Given the strong deceleration in growth, we think RBI may cut repo rate by 0.25% in May as well as may provide some liquidity easing,” Rao said.  Wholesale prices (WPI), a measure of inflation, softened to 5.96% in March after an annual rise of 6.84% in February, the lowest rate since November 2011.  “If you look at the incremental data WPI, IIP in the last two months, that data is in favour of the 25 basis points rate cut. We are expecting a cut in repo rate in May,” Anubhuti Sahay, Economist, Standard Chartered Bank said.  Industry has been batting for a rate cut to tide over the problems concerning poor demand, low industrial output and subdued economic growth.  The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the key gauge to measure industrial activity, slumped to 0.6% in February from 4.3% a year ago because of poor performance in manufacturing coupled with contraction in power generation and mining output. India’s economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a decade’s low of 5% in 2012-13, pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors.
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