This is just a brief follow up since tomorrow morning I will be busy and today’s inconclusive price action with another small range body (Spinning Top) does not add anything new to the short-term potential scenarios I have discussed in the weekly technical update.
For the immediate time frame price remains range bound between the immediate support at 1398.23 and the immediate resistance at 1423.73.
Theoretically, despite being close to a potential break out the daily Spinning Top is suggesting weakening of upside momentum, but it is unlikely to expect a meaningful pullback ahead of the FOMC.
It seems that the market remains, so far, careless to Risk off news from Europe and a potential, at least, short-term reversal of the EUR, the approaching FOMC meeting may be the reason behind this benevolent attitude.
Therefore, at the moment there is no clear edge within the potential EWP options that I showed this Sunday.
Also, it is strange that at today’s EOD we have VIX up Equity up and bonds up.
Below in the 30 min SPX I show the same ideas:
Additionally, the scenario of a ZigZag with a wave (C) unfolding an Ending Diagonal is still possible as long as 1410.90 is not breached.
If this ED pattern plays out it could have a bearish outcome by ending the assumed wave (B) off the September 14 high since we would most likely have negative divergences in the final wave (V) of the ED.
Conclusion:
Regardless of a potential pullback I maintain a bullish bias (until technical evidence shifts to the bears camp) since the pattern off the November lows is not complete yet.
THOUGHT FOR TODAY ——————————Mind MattersThe most important part of you is your mind (not your brain – the brain is the hardware and the mind creates the software). Care for your mind, make friends with it, always feed it healthy food, engage it in positive activity, exercise it with knowledge and wisdom. Like a garden returns fragrance and beauty according to the care invested, so your mind will repay you with thoughts, ideas and visions of great beauty when tended and invested with care. Your mind is not made of matter but it does matter what you give it and what you create with it. Where your mind goes, you go. What your mind creates becomes your destiny.
Nifty Future
(Updated on 11-12-2012 at 07.40 AM)
Yesterday mentioned 5960 is little strong hurdle.
Nifty Fut could not take out and made high at 5955.
Also written 5922 is strong support
and see Nf made low at 5923.80.
Now for Today………….
5954-5961 hurdle zone.
Crossover with sustained vol and price may take NF up to 5973-5989.
5931-5922 intraday support zone.
break below will drag NF up to 5892-5884.
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The world will not end on December 21, 2012 or anytime soon. I think the Mayan calendar indicates the end of a very long-term cycle that has a gradual impact upon the world, just as other long-term cycles make significant but gradual changes. Increases and decreases in solar output (a long-term cycle) may create ice ages or droughts that slowly and gradually change the world.
I’m also not worried about the other “end of the world” that we continuously hear about – The Fiscal Cliff. That topic has been worked to death. But the important information is simple:
Politicians brought the United States into our current fiscal mess, with the help of The Federal Reserve and bankers.
We have entrusted politicians to solve the problem. Really? The same political elite who created the problems will solve them? And what is your current belief structure regarding the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy?
We have way too much debt and far too much government spending. The supposed plan is to increase debt forever and without end (sounds like a prayer) and to marginally decrease the rate of increase in spending – and call it a spending cut. If I call a donkey a mosquito, is it really a mosquito, or just a renamed donkey? If I have a debt and spending problem and my plan is to continue spending excessively, should I expect my problem to persist or disappear? If I have a serious drinking problem, should I expect to cure it with vodka?
So, the world is not going to end on December 21 or January 1. More of the same will beget more of the same.
But what does worry me are the actions that we, the supposedly most intelligent species on the planet, have made over the past several hundred years. Actions have consequences. Consider these actions:
Creation of Fractional Reserve Banking: This allows bankers to create money “from thin air” and loan it to businesses, individuals, and governments and collect the interest on that created money. The result is that debt increases, additional interest must be paid, and the financial services portion of the economy increases at the expense of the manufacturing economy. The paper shufflers won, and the manufacturers of useful and valuable products lost.
Creation of Central Banks: Central banks, not the free market, currently control the money supply and interest rates, enable politicians to spend excessively and government to expand more rapidly than the productive economy. Consequently, the economy becomes overburdened with debt, interest payments, and government regulations. What could go wrong?
Corporate control over the government and regulatory process: If a business owns many politicians, it can purchase the legislation and regulation it desires. The US tax code is an estimated 70,000 pages of legislation and regulations, as purchased by wealthy and powerful special interests. Intelligent action or payoff action?
Demonetization of gold and the use of unbacked paper money: When paper money is not backed by gold (silver, oil, etc.), then the total quantity of money in circulation can increase almost without limit. Hence, the purchasing value of the money decreases and prices rise. Consumer price inflation is guaranteed.
Politicians, bureaucrats, and bankers control markets and make decisions that should be left to free markets. Another writer likened that process to handing a Stradivarius to a gorilla. Freer markets do a better job of managing the economy, money supply, interest rates, prices, and production. How do we know? Ask the survivors of the hyperinflations in the last century.
The world will not end on December 21, 2012 or anytime soon. I think the Mayan calendar indicates the end of a very long-term cycle that has a gradual impact upon the world, just as other long-term cycles make significant but gradual changes. Increases and decreases in solar output (a long-term cycle) may create ice ages or droughts that slowly and gradually change the world.
I’m also not worried about the other “end of the world” that we continuously hear about – The Fiscal Cliff. That topic has been worked to death. But the important information is simple:
Politicians brought the United States into our current fiscal mess, with the help of The Federal Reserve and bankers.
We have entrusted politicians to solve the problem. Really? The same political elite who created the problems will solve them? And what is your current belief structure regarding the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy?
We have way too much debt and far too much government spending. The supposed plan is to increase debt forever and without end (sounds like a prayer) and to marginally decrease the rate of increase in spending – and call it a spending cut. If I call a donkey a mosquito, is it really a mosquito, or just a renamed donkey? If I have a debt and spending problem and my plan is to continue spending excessively, should I expect my problem to persist or disappear? If I have a serious drinking problem, should I expect to cure it with vodka?
So, the world is not going to end on December 21 or January 1. More of the same will beget more of the same.
But what does worry me are the actions that we, the supposedly most intelligent species on the planet, have made over the past several hundred years. Actions have consequences. Consider these actions:
Creation of Fractional Reserve Banking: This allows bankers to create money “from thin air” and loan it to businesses, individuals, and governments and collect the interest on that created money. The result is that debt increases, additional interest must be paid, and the financial services portion of the economy increases at the expense of the manufacturing economy. The paper shufflers won, and the manufacturers of useful and valuable products lost.
Creation of Central Banks: Central banks, not the free market, currently control the money supply and interest rates, enable politicians to spend excessively and government to expand more rapidly than the productive economy. Consequently, the economy becomes overburdened with debt, interest payments, and government regulations. What could go wrong?
Corporate control over the government and regulatory process: If a business owns many politicians, it can purchase the legislation and regulation it desires. The US tax code is an estimated 70,000 pages of legislation and regulations, as purchased by wealthy and powerful special interests. Intelligent action or payoff action?
Demonetization of gold and the use of unbacked paper money: When paper money is not backed by gold (silver, oil, etc.), then the total quantity of money in circulation can increase almost without limit. Hence, the purchasing value of the money decreases and prices rise. Consumer price inflation is guaranteed.
Politicians, bureaucrats, and bankers control markets and make decisions that should be left to free markets. Another writer likened that process to handing a Stradivarius to a gorilla. Freer markets do a better job of managing the economy, money supply, interest rates, prices, and production. How do we know? Ask the survivors of the hyperinflations in the last century.
• EUR/USD has weakened after failing to break the resistance at 1.3140 (17/10/2012 high). Monitor the test of the key support at 1.2875. An hourly resistance is at 1.2973 (07/12/2012 high). Another support can be found at 1.2834 (intraday low).
• The underlying trend is negative (see the succession of lower highs since May 2011 peak). Therefore we expect limited upside potential given the strong resistance at 1.3172 (17/09/2012 high) and the overall overbought conditions.
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Exhaustion Bar Chart Pattern (Bullish)
Effect of Exhaustion Bar
One Exhaustion Bar (Bullish) indicates a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend. This pattern is definitely an sign of the economic instrument’s SHORT-TERM outlook. One and also two-bar patterns echo changes in investor psychology that have a very short-term impact on top of future prices – typically less than ten bars. Often the immediate influence is trend exhaustion followed by reversal. For investors looking for evident entry and leave points, these patterns provide well. They are really normally not appropriate because signals for long-term investors unless viewed as month-to-month bars.
Story
Exhaustion Bars can develop following a rapid upwards or down move. They happen to be a form of key reversal, however alter sufficiently sufficient to warrant their own classification.
Trading Factors Exhaustion Bars can be either Bullish or perhaps Bearish this depends on the direction of the inbound trend. If the inbound price trend is up, then upon identification of a Exhaustion Bar, taking a brief positioning or perhaps selling a long position is advised. Conversely, if the inbound price trend is down because in this case, then on recognition of a Exhaustion Bar, taking a long position or finalizing a short position is advised.
Problem of the particular pattern is denoted by a price move in the completely wrong direction beyond the extreme point of the Exhaustion Bar.
The amount that the price bars and volume features match this excellent summary probably will feature a bearing regarding the power of the post pattern price motion. Good trading training dictates that these signals ought not be applied in isolation: fundamental data, sector and also market evidences along with other technical like support/resistance and momentum studies needs to be utilized to support your trading choices.
Factors that Supports
The price opens with a large space in the movement of the then-prevailing trend.
The bar is extremely in width relative to the past bars.
The opening price nurtures inside the lower one half of the bar in a downtrend and also in the top half in a good uptrend.
The closing price must be both above the opening price and in the most notable 1 / 2 of the bar in a downtrend and additionally in the lower one half and also below the opening in the uptrend.
The bar is completed having a space to the left still in place.
Overall look for heavy volume to suggest short-term inbound trend orgasm.
Main Behavior
The existence of some kind of Exhaustion Bar normally warns of a reversal of psychology. By having a large opening space, you are watching the results of extreme sentiment, but like the in width trading range consumes up a big aspect of the opening space, plus the bar finishes with the gap virtually closed, you possess a strong indication of a sentiment reversal from bearish to bullish.
Message for you(Trader/Investor): Google has the answers to most all of your questions, after exploring Google if you still have thoughts or questions my Email is open 24/7. Each week you will receive your Course Materials. You can print it and highlight for your Technical Analysis Training.
Wishing you a wonderful learning experience and the continued desire to grow your knowledge. Education is an essential part of living wisely and the Experiences of life, I hope you make it fun.
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