EUR/USD(Bouncing on support at 1.2875) updated 11-12-2012

 

eur-usd-intraday

Await fresh signal.

Bouncing on support at 1.2875.

.
• EUR/USD has successfully tested the key
support at 1.2875. Resistances for a bounce are
given by 1.2973 (07/12/2012 high) and 1.3046
(04/12/2012 low).
• The underlying trend is negative (see the
succession of lower highs since May 2011 peak).
Therefore we expect limited upside potential
given the strong resistance at 1.3172 (17/09/2012
high) and the overall overbought conditions.

 

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S&P Following Up of the Short Term

This is just a brief follow up since tomorrow morning I will be busy and today’s inconclusive price action with another small range body (Spinning Top) does not add anything new to the short-term potential scenarios I have discussed in the weekly technical update.

For the immediate time frame price remains range bound between the immediate support at 1398.23 and the immediate resistance at 1423.73.

Theoretically despite being close to a potential break out the daily Spinning Top is suggesting weakening of upside momentum, but it is unlikely to expect a meaningful pullback ahead of the FOMC.

It seems that the market remains, so far, careless to Risk off news from Europe and a potential, at least, short-term reversal of the EUR, the approaching FOMC meeting may be the reason behind this benevolent attitude.

Therefore at the moment there is no clear edge within the potential EWP options that I showed this Sunday.

Also it is strange that at today’s eod we have VIX up Equity up and Bonds up.

Below in the 30 min SPX I show the same ideas:

sp-short-term-bullish

 

Additionally the scenario of a Zig Zag with a wave (C) unfolding an Ending Diagonal is still possible as long as 1410.90 is not breached.

If this ED pattern plays out it could have a bearish outcome by ending the assumed wave (B) off the September 14 high since we would most likely have negative divergences in the final wave (V) of the ED.

sp-short-term-bearish

Conclusion:

Regardless of a potential pullback I maintain a bullish bias (until technical evidence shifts to the bears camp) since the pattern off the November lows is not complete yet.

EUR / USD (Await fresh signal)

eur-usd

.

Testing support at 1.2875.

• EUR/USD has weakened after failing to break
the resistance at 1.3140 (17/10/2012 high).
Monitor the test of the key support at 1.2875. An
hourly resistance is at 1.2973 (07/12/2012 high).
Another support can be found at 1.2834
(intraday low).

• The underlying trend is negative (see the
succession of lower highs since May 2011 peak).
Therefore we expect limited upside potential
given the strong resistance at 1.3172 (17/09/2012
high) and the overall overbought conditions.

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Just visit: Free Forex tips to Get costless Currency tips, news and learn technical analysis without any cost.

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Global Market: Short Term View updated on 9-12-2012

SPX Long Term

My preferred wave count is similar to the idea I posted some weeks back on the DAX and that I suspect the SPX is inside a 5th wave for an ending diagonal so likely to chop higher into Jan-Feb period next year before a meaningful high. It would need a seriously strong break below the 200DMA on the SPX before I would switch to an alternative bearish idea, whilst this market continues higher I still prefer the bullish option over the bearish option.

Although I am certainly no perma bull and calling for SPX 2000 or anything like that, recent price action over the last few days suggests the market is simply correcting the advance from the Nov 2012 lows and likely to push higher once the correction has finished.

shor-term-sp-500

When you look at other US markets we can clearly see the same sort of shape, especially markets such as the NYSE. The last decline from the September 2012 highs was a 3 wave decline as we can clearly see the NYSE is pushing higher as I suspect it would, but is lacking the new high it needs to complete its idea.

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S&P 500, Inverse “Head and Shoulders” Pattern Continues to Play Out as Heavy Week of Economic Data Begins

The first week of the month is always the most interesting, with global purchasing managers indexes, U.S. ISM’s, and employment data released.  Overnight we see continued weakness in Europe’s economic data and perhaps some more “green shoots” in China.   Europe is sporting “beige shoots” at it is reaching the stage where things are so bad it is difficult to go down further.

 

  • Euro-zone manufacturing activity contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November, albeit at a slower pace than in October.  Markit’s Eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 46.2 in November from October’s 45.4, though it stayed below the 50 mark dividing growth from contraction for the 16th straight month.
  • The new export orders index was revised up to 46.4 from the preliminary reading of 45.9 two weeks ago, and it now reads more than a full point higher than the October reading.
  • Manufacturing accounts for around a quarter of the euro zone’s private economy and is dwarfed by a services sector that fared badly in November, the data two weeks ago showed.

 

China seems to be “recovering” not due to the private sector, but government led:

  • The final reading for the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Survey (PMI) rose to 50.5 in November from 49.5 in October, in line with a preliminary survey published late last month. It was the first time since October 2011 that the survey crossed above 50 points, the line that demarcates accelerating from slowing growth.
  • An official PMI survey of China’s non-manufacturing sectors also ticked up, to 55.6 in November from 55.5 in October, led by expanded activity in constructionservices. But growth in air and rail transport and food and beverages both slowed.
  • Growth accelerated for large firms for the third month in a row, but medium and smaller companies saw a retrenchment, with the decline more pronounced for the smaller firms, the NBS said in a not accompanying its official manufacturing PMI survey.  “The improving numbers are mostly because of government investment,” said Dong Xian’an, economist with Peking First Advisory, referring to the official PMI.

 

As for the U.S. we have ISM Manufacturing this morning at 10 AM; consensus for 51.7 – flat with last month.  Construction spending also hits at 10 AM – expectation 0.4% growth.

Wednesday ADP employment which hopefully with some recent changes is “somewhat” closer to government data on a month to month data (before revisions) – expectations of 125K versus 158K.  Sandy should be an issue.  ISM Non Manufacturing, expectations of a drop to 53.6 versus 54.2.

Friday is the much watched (Jack Welch) employment report – expectations of only 80K versus last month’s 171K, again Sandy impacts here.  Unemployment rate expected up to 8.0% versus 7.9%.

—————————

As for the technical picture, we have a gap up this morning on any myriad of “positive” news items – China PMI (despite China stock market falling yet again), European PMI not getting worse (European markets acting WELL), or Spain asking for bailout funds for its banks (no surprise, but algos read the headline and futures popped).  Evidence continues to mount for a continuation of an inverse “head and shoulders” bottom move; if this continues there should be a move to the mid 143os to upper 1440s (depending on what you use for the head and neckline – up for some interpretation).   Now if that happens this would create the first “higher high” in the S&P 500 since the correction began in mid September, but if that is all the move has in it would be a particularly nasty spot to reverse since everyone would say “a new high” and the trend is changed.   But we’ll see – this market has become famous since 2009 for “V shaped” moves that continue in one direction (not the boy band) without relent so the talk of “performance chasing” and “underinvested longs” and “repeatedly scarred shorts” should be relentless over S&P 1435.

At the time I write this the S&P 500 is gapping up to the 61.8% retrace of the entire two month correction.  As posted Friday the ability for the market to move sideways to consolidate gains was a positive – so the corrections in this move up have come mostly via time rather than price.

sp-500-Head-and-Shoulders

S and P 500: Complicated from Here

While things are never easy, the (quote-unquote) obvious trade in the major indexes has now played out, especially on the S&P 500.  Of course most of it happened in an overnight gap up, but that has been par for the course.  From here things get more complicated.  Here are a few ways to look at the roadmap utilizing the S&P 500.

First the original S&P 500 chart that has been in play for months, looking at the June-Sep run, and pullback since.   Two key points here – the index has bounced from the 61.8% retrace to nearly the original 38.2% retrace at ~1395.   That number is also key in that it was support multiple times in August 2012.  Support turns into resistance and vice versa so this 1395 level is a very obvious level to watch.

s-and-p-500

Second, is the chart I posted yesterday morning which is simply the same Fibonacci levels but focused solely on the September-November pullback.  What’s the first number that sticks out?  1394 (call it 1395, close enough for government work).  That is the 38.2% retrace of the two month correction.

s-and-p-500-index

If 1395 is vanquished, the next two levels are 1409 to 1424 which you can see was an area with a lot of traffic in late October to early November before the correction became much more ferocious.   That second number also coincides with a falling 50 day moving average.

Last, on a very short term frame there is a potential for an inverse head and shoulders formation (which favors bulls) in the near term.  The head being Thursday/Friday’s lows and the neckline being about “here” at 1390.   If that does play out, it measures to a target of ~1430.  That would be a 3% move from here.. and still not create a new higher high versus those early November levels.  Hence all that could in theory happen and still bode poorly afterwards.   But either way, one can see all the congestion and push pull in the areas overhead.

Of course all this coincides with positive seasonality, the constant negotiations re: the fiscal cliff, the next round of easing to be announced at December’s FOMC meeting (to replace Operation Twist), and a slowing corporate earnings outlook.

Anyhow enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday and we’ll catch you on the other side.