Intraday Stock Tips

The Indian stock market declined for second consecutive week tracking weak global shares after

a Republican proposal to deal with a US fiscal crunch failed to get enough support, deepening

uncertainty over the US can avert the “fiscal cliff” of automatic spending cuts and tax increases

set to start Jan. 1. 

Some key highlights during the week

•  The RBI kept repo rates – the rate at which RBI lends to banks—and cash reserve ratio (CRR)

unchanged. However, the central bank has hinted that it may cut policy rates next month. The

government’s bold declaration not to exceed the original borrowing target of Rs.5.7 lakh crore

for the current fiscal has been a great comfort for the banks. 

•  Global rating agency Standard and Poor’s (S&P) has said it expects India to grow by 6.5%

during 2013, amidst the possibility of global economic recovery continuing during the year. 

•  Foreign direct investment inflows into India jumped 67% in October to $1.94 billion, a

government statement said on Friday, but inflows for the current financial year were still down.

Total FDI inflows in the first seven months for the current fiscal year that began in April were

down 42% from a year earlier at $14.79 billion.

•  India’s holding of US government debt securities has declined for the second consecutive

month, even as many other countries including China, Japan, Brazil and Russia hiked their

exposure to American treasury bonds. As per the latest data released by the US Department

of Treasury, India’s holding of treasury securities stood at $58.9 billion (over Rs 3,20,000

crore) at the end of October 2012 — marking the second straight month of decline after an

uptrend for seven continuous months. However, the holdings of countries like China, Japan,

Brazil, Switzerland, Russia, France and Canada rose during October. At the end of the month,

India was the 18th largest holder of the US treasury bonds, while China was the largest

foreign owner of these securities followed by Japan, Brazil, Taiwan, Switzerland, Russia,

Luxembourg, Hong Kong, Belgium and the UK in the top ten.

•  The Government lowered the growth projection  for the current financial year to 5.7-5.9%,

while pitching for supportive monetary and fiscal policies to improve investor confidence. The

economy, it added, would have to record a growth rate of 6% in second half of the current

financial year to reach the desired growth rate. It grew by 5.4% during April-September 2012-

13. The economic survey had pegged the growth rate at 7.6% for this fiscal. To achieve 5.7-

5.9% growth, the analysis said, “both fiscal and monetary policy, however, would need to be

supportive to sustain investor confidence.  The government will also have to address the

concerns relating to structural supply side bottlenecks”. 

US Markets

US markets weakened this week, as a new setback in talks to avert a U.S. fiscal crisis and

evidence of Europe’s ongoing economic difficulties stoked investor nerves.  For the week, the

three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with Dow Jones up 0.4%, S&P 500 up 1.2% and

Nasdaq Composite Index up 1.7%.

Key Highlights during the week:

•  The December 2012 Empire State Manufacturing  Survey indicates that conditions for New

York manufacturers continued to decline at a modest pace. The general business conditions

index was negative for a fifth consecutive month, falling three points to -8.1. The new orders

index dropped to -3.7, while the shipments index declined six points to 8.8. At 16.1, the prices

The markets may remain volatile next week as traders roll over positions in the F&O segment

from the near month December 2012 series to January 2013 series. The near-month December

2012 derivatives contracts expire on Thursday, December 27, 2012. Investors are likely to keep

a close on watch on the developments on the US ‘fiscal cliff’ which could especially affect

software service exporters such as Infosys and TCS. Indian companies will start unveiling Q3

December 2012 results from mid-January 2013.