On its way down from 168, GLD broke its first support level and came to rest on the second (200-DMA) from which it had a bounce. Last week, I suggested that it might find some resistance on the small horizontal red trend line, which it has, and which caused it to pull back three points. It’s difficult to see how it could have much more of a decline right away if the market is going to have a mid-correction rally, so we can probably expect the near-term trend to turn up again, perhaps reaching the top channel line (blue) before rolling over again.
If GLD does not have much of a rally from here – especially if the market does rally – it will be an indication that some decent weakness can be expected into the cycle low. In any case, subsequent action should form a P&F pattern which will help us determine the extent of the decline into the 25-wk cycle low.
UUP (dollar ETF)
UUP normally goes against equities and gold. The index appears to be extended short-term and eady to pull-back. This can be seen in the indicators, one of which is very overbought and the other beginning to show some negative divergence. If a short-term top is forming, this should help the market to find a short-term low.