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In Stock Market, My Traders and I used to read the announcements over the PA system in the morning. We’d always end with the “thought of the day”, an inspirational little nugget provided by whichever adult compiled the announcements (though sometimes, of course, we’d insert our own words of wisdom – I remember one of the other advisers using song lyrics, something about “can you hear the dolphins cry”). Hopefully, this pinboard contains more cleverness than the phrase that inspired it.
The US federal government began implementing across-the-board spending cuts last month, known formally as sequestration. The US federal government began implementing across-the-board spending cuts last month, known formally as sequestration.A range of US companies are warning investors that sequestration is starting to bite, but executives are still unclear how deep the wound will be.
The US federal government began implementing across-the-board spending cuts last month, known formally as sequestration but more commonly called “the sequester.”
It has meant everything from furloughs for air traffic controllers to fewer planes for the US Navy to smaller subsidies for farmers. So far this earnings period, executives from Lockheed Martin to IBM and Delta Air Lines are flagging how those US budget cuts cost them some sales in the first quarter. But the bigger concern is how much they might lose in the months to come as the budget cuts begin to really take hold – and getting a detailed forecast has proven hard to come by.
“Sequestration is a reality, but it’s unfolding slowly at this time,”United Technologies Chief Executive Louis Chenevert said in an interview Tuesday. “We will understand more what sequestration does as we get to the end of the year.” Market strategists said the fears about sequestration feed into a broader decline in confidence, underlined by a recent rise in unemployment claims and decline in factory activity in parts of the country.
“These CEOs saying it’s all three to four months out, it kind of plays into that,” said JJ Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade. “The sequester is one more data point for people to worry about.” Yet investors are not spooked. Since March 1, when the sequester kicked in, the S&P is up 4 per cent, continuing a sharp run that started last November.
IDBI Bank has a piece of Bollywood’s 100-year-old history, but no one seems to be interested in it. The only one who found it worthwhile is broke and has been ordered to shut down. The plot on which stood the Minerva theater in South Mumbai, known as the Pride of Maharashtra, which crated history by running Amitabh Bachchan-starrer Sholay for five straight years, is now on the books of IDBI Bank. And the lender does not know what to do with it…
The state-run bank recently failed for the third time to sell the plot on Lamington Road, which has the potential to build and sell real estate for 40,000 square feet. That’s as much a surprise as it is a shock in a city where the fight for land can take many twists and turns. If a mouth-watering deal for real estate developers is going with no attention, what’s the catch?
Like an impediment for most other economic activities – it is an archaic law. A rule says that in any piece of land where a theater once stood, there is no other option than building another theatre after razing the old one. “We have not decided what we will do with it,” says RM Malla, chairman and managing director at IDBI Bank. “It has to have a screen. Even a mini screen will do.”
For IDBI, it was funding an exotic idea that went sour.
In 2006, it lent about Rs 40 crore to Neville Tuli, the pioneer of art investing in India, through Osian’s Connoisseur’s Art, to build a theater and an exhibition center named OSIANAMA. The idea was to bring international movie experience to India. Reality did not unfold the way it was forecast to. The economy collapsed, value of assets tumbled and so did the fortune of Osian. All that stands now is a barren land with the once iconic structure pulled down.
Dues rose to Rs 84.8 crore in the period. First, IDBI decided to auction it at Rs 70 crore, that failed. Then, reduced the asking price to Rs 61 crore – still no takers.
Osian’s Connoisseurs of Art is having its own difficulties with the regulator Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi), which is directing it to wind up for violating securities laws.
Osian’s “is directed not to access the capital market and is further restrained and prohibited from buying, selling or otherwise dealing in the securities market till its collective investment schemes are wound up and all the monies mobilised through them are refunded to the investors,” the Sebi order said.
Planning a residential tower, along with a multiplex and a retail component, may not be a good idea elsewhere, but won’t find takers in the elitist South Mumbai.
The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) projected the economy to grow at 6.4 percent in the new financial year that began on April 1. The panel said the economy probably grew 5 percent in the fiscal year 2013, its slowest pace in a decade, but an upward revision was likely.
Presenting the economic review for fiscal year 2013, C Rangarajan, chairman, PMEAC lauded the reform measures taken by the government and claimed it had started yielding desired results. The PMEAC chairman said the manufacturing sector is all set to improve its performance over FY13 and may even report numbers higher than what the Central Statistical Office (CSO) had estimated.
The improvement in the growth rate in the current fiscal, he said, would mainly be on account of better performance of agriculture, industry and services sectors.
He also said FY14 current account deficit (CAD) is expected to narrow down to 4.7 percent (from 5.1 percent in FY13) when the pace of exports pick up. He clarified that exports will remain modest in first quarter but will see gradual momentum from second and third quarters. CAD, which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange, rose to a phenomenal 6.7 per cent for the quarter ended December 2012.
Saying that there are tell-tale signs of WPI inflation coming down, specifically non-food inflation, Rangarajan pegged it at 6 percent for fiscal year 2014. “Non—food manufacturing inflation remains around the comfort zone. As inflation comes down, it will create more space for monetary policy to support growth,” the economist said, hoping that lower inflation will contain demand for gold imports thereby reducing pressure on CAD.
Below are the sector-wise performance prediction for FY14:
Industry Growth seen at 4.9 percent
Services growth seen at 7.7 percent
Normal monsoon can lead to 3.5 percent agriculture growth
In my opinion the top of the up leg from the November lows is in place.
We will have the absolute confirmation when price establishes a lower high.
Below I show you the SPX weekly momentum indicators, where we can see that the RSI has breached the trend line support in force since the November 16 low.
The next intermediate buy signal usually should occur when the RSI and the Stochastic retest the 50 line.
I rule out a major reversal, instead I maintain the scenario of a retracement of the advance from the November lows.
As I discussed last Friday the major reasons that suggest that price has not established a major top are:
The up leg from the November lows has unfolded a corrective 7-wave structure ===> A corrective EWP cannot establish a major Top.
The current pullback is also unfolding a corrective pattern, ===> The intermediate trend remains up.
Retails investors are extremely bearish (I have never seen a major top with an extremely low AAII Bull ratio)
Regarding the potential target, at the moment, since we are in the initial stage of a corrective pattern I can only say that price should establish a bottom in the range 1485 – 200 DMA. (which today stands at 1453)
Once a lower high is in place, the next down leg should aim at the 0.382 R = 1500, where probably a large rebound will take place. If bears maintain the sequence of lower high/lows then the following down leg will reach the target box.
Therefore, I reiterate that the above “road map” looks very probable as long as the bounce, which began last Friday, establishes a lower high.
Regarding the long-term count, I maintain the Triple ZigZag wave (X) scenario. As I have discussed in previous weekly updates since the assumed wave (Z), which began at the November 2012 low is not impulsive I am suggesting that it should unfold an Ending Diagonal, if this is the case on April 11 price has completed the wave (I).
The summation Index, which, peaked at the end of January is already oversold (RSI has crossed the 30 line) and on Friday it has breached the 200 dma. It is remarkable that SPX has been able to establish higher highs with such a weak breadth performance.
Going forward since price has just begun a corrective phase, an already oversold Summation Index should prevent a major decline.
Lets move on to the current price action.
It is reasonable to expect that the rebound from last Thursday LOD to reach the target box delimited between the 20 DMA = 1564 and the 0,618 retracements = 1574.
If it tops at the 20 DMA the 1×1 extension target for the following down leg would take us to the 0.382 retracement of the advance from the November lows at 1500.
EW wise price would be unfolding a ZigZag therefore if lower prices were in the cards probably this initial ZigZag would morph into a Double ZigZag
Lastly, VIX on Friday has “issued a Bollinger Band buy equity signal”. Friday’s drop has been larger than I initially thought, moving back below the 200 DMA. I still expect a bottom in the range of the moving averages (10-20-50) or in the worst-case scenario at the rising trend line support in force since the March 14 low. The lower is the retracement, the larger will be the assumed SPX wave (B) rebound.
I still think that the pattern that VIX is unfolding does not suggest a major move to the upside, but as long as the sequence of higher lows/highs is maintained the trend remains up.
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RBI Governor D Subbarao will announce the Monetary Policy Statement for FY14 on May 3, 2013
The Reserve Bank may cut the benchmark short-term lending rate by about 0.25% in its annual monetary policy next month in the backdrop of declining inflation and the urgency to promote growth, say economists.
“Right now, conditions should enable the RBI to cut the repo rate. We expect a cut of 25 basis points (or 0.25%) in its policy in May and may be by another 25 bps in the next review,” HDFC Bank Chief Economist Barua said.
RBI Governor D Subbarao will announce the Monetary Policy Statement 2013-14 on May 3, 2013.
YES Bank Chief Economist Shubhada Rao said RBI may cut the repo rate or the short-term lending rate by about 0.25% in May as inflation has come down and there is a need to fuel economic growth.
“Taking cue from inflation, we believe that RBI could take this time…To cut rate, particularly, the way we have seen inflation in the past coming down. Given the strong deceleration in growth, we think RBI may cut repo rate by 0.25% in May as well as may provide some liquidity easing,” Rao said.
Wholesale prices (WPI), a measure of inflation, softened to 5.96% in March after an annual rise of 6.84% in February, the lowest rate since November 2011.
“If you look at the incremental data WPI, IIP in the last two months, that data is in favour of the 25 basis points rate cut. We are expecting a cut in repo rate in May,” Anubhuti Sahay, Economist, Standard Chartered Bank said.
Industry has been batting for a rate cut to tide over the problems concerning poor demand, low industrial output and subdued economic growth.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the key gauge to measure industrial activity, slumped to 0.6% in February from 4.3% a year ago because of poor performance in manufacturing coupled with contraction in power generation and mining output.India’s economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a decade’s low of 5% in 2012-13, pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors.
