nifty trading tips

Before:

Price was out of the value area, and It has given 78.6% retracement of the previous move.

To maintain equilibrium, However, price should enter into the value area.

The lower band indicates a crucial demand zone. But if the price fails to break the lower band, supply will exceed the demand.

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After:

Price has entered into the value area, and price surged to the control line, which is the controller of any particular trend move.

I have mentioned it in bold words,” At this juncture, the price has entered the value area. The lower band indicates the demand pressure. The price will surge towards 17369- 17487-17612.

28th January 2022: 

12:15 PM – Price entered into the value area. The first target of 17369 has reached, and the price has made a high of 17373.

1st February 2022: 

9:15 AM – Price has reached the second target of 17487.

12:00 PM – Price reached the final target of 17612.

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After breaking the parallel channel, the price entered the value area.

Price has started a seller initiative by going out of the price zone.
Buyers responded more to sellers’ initiatives with an excess.

At this juncture, the price has entered the value area.
The lower band indicates the demand pressure.

If the price does not stay above the lower band at 17250, it could move downwards to the lower levels – 16628-16410, because the price didn’t break the 78.6% level.
Otherwise, the price will surge towards 17369- 17487-17612.

Note that if the price does not break the control line, it can not reach the upper band.

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Price Action Perspective:
Price is creating a value area where supply and demand are equal.
The control line of the value area has provided eight price touches to confirm the price move, and it has provided five reversals.

In this view, Nifty is on the control line of the value area at 17615. Price has drawn a doji candle on the control line.
There are seven pieces of evidence of a reversal on the control, so the level of 17615 becomes a key level for traders.

In addition, nifty often gives a gap-up after every powerful doji candle. If it has the potential to reverse the price, nifty can reverse with gap-up. (You can see green circles in the chart)

Conclusion:
If Nifty could not sustain above the control line, it would start a downward movement till the lower band of the price area. Price seems strong above the control line, and if the price sustains above 17614, we may see a low 17760-17914-18123+.

Important scenario to look at:

Global Scenario:
– Interest rate hike on the card;
– QE is ending;
– Tapper is in plan;
– Earnings are not as expected;
– Demand getting slow;
– Uncertainty in Russia to US over Ukraine;
– KSA and Yemen issue; and
– Many of growth stocks in US are at 52W low; and
– (Minus) 4.1 World GDP

Indian Scenario:
– Reliance shows exception results;
– IT disappointed;- Banking Insurance Realty doing fine;
– Budget is on the cards. Further, it is expected great expending by the GOI in projects to boost economy.
– GOI to push Make in India;
– FII selling DII buying (SIP and Retail participants investing)

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