India,japan seek early agreement on civil nuclear pact

TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe and his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh agreed on Wednesday to speed up talks on a deal to allow Japan to export nuclear plants and to strengthen security cooperation as both sides keep a wary eye on China’s military clout.

“In the political and security area, maritime security cooperation will further be strengthened … On civil nuclear cooperation, negotiation will be accelerated toward the early conclusion of the agreement,”Abe told a ceremony alongside Manmohan Singh.

Unable to rely on a coal sector crippled by supply shortages and mired in scandals, India is pushing ahead with constructing nuclear reactors despite global jitters over safety. Hundreds of millions of Indians still live without power, and factories suffer frequent blackouts.

A civil nuclear energy pact with India would give Japanese nuclear technology firms such as Toshiba Corp and Hitachi Ltd access to India’s fast-growing market when they search for opportunities overseas to offset an anti-nuclear backlash at home in response to the Fukushima radiation crisis.

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Sequester dents US earnings, but full impact still unclear

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The US federal government began implementing across-the-board spending cuts last month, known formally as sequestration. The US federal government began implementing across-the-board spending cuts last month, known formally as sequestration.A range of US companies are warning investors that sequestration is starting to bite, but executives are still unclear how deep the wound will be.

The US federal government began implementing across-the-board spending cuts last month, known formally as sequestration but more commonly called “the sequester.”

It has meant everything from furloughs for air traffic controllers to fewer planes for the US Navy to smaller subsidies for farmers. So far this earnings period, executives from Lockheed Martin to IBM and Delta Air Lines are flagging how those US budget cuts cost them some sales in the first quarter. But the bigger concern is how much they might lose in the months to come as the budget cuts begin to really take hold – and getting a detailed forecast has proven hard to come by.

 “Sequestration is a reality, but it’s unfolding slowly at this time,”United Technologies Chief Executive Louis Chenevert said in an interview Tuesday. “We will understand more what sequestration does as we get to the end of the year.” Market strategists said the fears about sequestration feed into a broader decline in confidence, underlined by a recent rise in unemployment claims and decline in factory activity in parts of the country.

“These CEOs saying it’s all three to four months out, it kind of plays into that,” said JJ Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade. “The sequester is one more data point for people to worry about.” Yet investors are not spooked. Since March 1, when the sequester kicked in, the S&P is up 4 per cent, continuing a sharp run that started last November.

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Rangarajan presents FY13 report card, sees FY14 GDP at 6.4%

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The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) projected the economy to grow at 6.4 percent in the new financial year that began on April 1. The panel said the economy probably grew 5 percent in the fiscal year 2013, its slowest pace in a decade, but an upward revision was likely.

Presenting the economic review for fiscal year 2013, C Rangarajan, chairman, PMEAC lauded the reform measures taken by the government and claimed it had started yielding desired results. The PMEAC chairman said the manufacturing sector is all set to improve its performance over FY13 and may even report numbers higher than what the Central Statistical Office (CSO) had estimated.

The improvement in the growth rate in the current fiscal, he said, would mainly be on account of better performance of agriculture, industry and services sectors.

He also said FY14 current account deficit (CAD) is expected to narrow down to 4.7 percent (from 5.1 percent in FY13) when the pace of exports pick up. He clarified that exports will remain modest in first quarter but will see gradual momentum from second and third quarters. CAD, which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange, rose to a phenomenal 6.7 per cent for the quarter ended December 2012.

Saying that there are tell-tale signs of WPI inflation coming down, specifically non-food inflation, Rangarajan pegged it at 6 percent for fiscal year 2014. “Non—food manufacturing inflation remains around the comfort zone. As inflation comes down, it will create more space for monetary policy to support growth,” the economist said, hoping that lower inflation will contain demand for gold imports thereby reducing pressure on CAD.

Below are the sector-wise performance prediction for FY14:

Industry Growth seen at 4.9 percent

Services growth seen at 7.7 percent

Normal monsoon can lead to 3.5 percent agriculture growth

Manufacturing growth seen at 4 percent

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RBI may cut benchmark lending rate by 0.25% in May

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RBI Governor D Subbarao will announce the Monetary Policy Statement for FY14 on May 3, 2013

The Reserve Bank may cut the benchmark short-term lending rate by about 0.25% in its annual monetary policy next month in the backdrop of declining inflation and the urgency to promote growth, say economists. 

“Right now, conditions should enable the RBI to cut the repo rate. We expect a cut of 25 basis points (or 0.25%) in its policy in May and may be by another 25 bps in the next review,” HDFC Bank Chief Economist  Barua said. 

RBI Governor D Subbarao will announce the Monetary Policy Statement 2013-14 on May 3, 2013. 

YES Bank Chief Economist Shubhada Rao said RBI may cut the repo rate or the short-term lending rate by about 0.25% in May as inflation has come down and there is a need to fuel economic growth. 

“Taking cue from inflation, we believe that RBI could take this time…To cut rate, particularly, the way we have seen inflation in the past coming down. Given the strong deceleration in growth, we think RBI may cut repo rate by 0.25% in May as well as may provide some liquidity easing,” Rao said. 

Wholesale prices (WPI), a measure of inflation, softened to 5.96% in March after an annual rise of 6.84% in February, the lowest rate since November 2011. 

“If you look at the incremental data WPI, IIP in the last two months, that data is in favour of the 25 basis points rate cut. We are expecting a cut in repo rate in May,” Anubhuti Sahay, Economist, Standard Chartered Bank said. 

Industry has been batting for a rate cut to tide over the problems concerning poor demand, low industrial output and subdued economic growth.

 The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the key gauge to measure industrial activity, slumped to 0.6% in February from 4.3% a year ago because of poor performance in manufacturing coupled with contraction in power generation and mining output. India’s economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a decade’s low of 5% in 2012-13, pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors.

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RBI may issue clarification on bank licences by early May

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It released guidelines for new bank licenses in Feb this year, asking aspirants to submit applications by July 1, 2013

RBI may issue clarification on bank licenses by early May. It released guidelines for new bank licenses in Feb this year, asking aspirants to submit applications by July 1, 2013. The Reserve Bank is likely to issue by early next month clarifications on new bank license guidelines as sought by interested entities, a senior RBI official has said.

“We have received queries from various entities. RBI will be posting on its website all the relevant clarifications with regard to new bank license guidelines by this month end or early next month so that they get ample time to file applications,” a senior RBI official said.

RBI released guidelines for new bank licenses in February this year, asking the aspirants to submit applications by July 1, 2013.

Many large business groups such as Anil Ambani-led Reliance Group, L&T, Mahindra, Birlas, Religare and Videocon have already made public their intentions to apply for the licenses, while many NBF C including Shriram group, Indiabulls, India Infoline, IFCI and PFC have also shown interest. Those reported to be interested in banking license also include Tatas and Mukesh Ambani-led RIL group.

However, the RBI is expected to follow a conservative approach and allow 4-5 new players in an already highly competitive banking sector.

Many aspirants have roped in former bank chiefs and other senior bankers from India and abroad as consultants to help them prepare for seeking the license. Interestingly, many real estate players have shown initial interest despite their financial positions not being entirely in adherence to the norms spelt out by the RBI.

After July 1, the last date of application for bank license, RBI will make public names of all the interested entities. RBI last gave bank licenses around a decade back.

Many clarifications could be relating to interpretation of various clauses of the new bank license norms, as many entities had complained of ‘ambiguity’ on various fronts in the guidelines.

The applicants from the NBFC space have also sought to know whether RBI would allow conversion of all their Tier-1 branches and locations into bank branches in case of the transfer of their existing activities into various banking functions.

They have sought to know what will happen to the Tier 1 branches that are not allowed to be converted to bank branches, sources said.

As per RBI’s guidelines, those eligible to apply for banking license include entities or groups in the private sector, entities in public sector and Non-Banking Financial Companies through a wholly-owned Non-Operative Financial Holding Company (NOFHC).

Clarifications have also been sought on the corporate structure of the NOFHC as well. RBI has said the NOFHC shall be wholly owned by the promoters and should hold the bank as well as all the other financial services entities of the group.

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Focus Turns to Hunt for Bombing Motive

Task Force To Question Injured Teen

Investigators in the Boston Marathon bombing case shifted their focus Saturday to hunting for a motive and preparing charges after apprehending 19-year-old college student Dzhokhar Tsarnaev Friday night.

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