nifty wave

The Financial Waves Monthly Update: Nifty, Gold, Bank Nifty…

Following is an overview of “The Financial Waves Monthly Update” which is a 18 page report and has 12 different charts giving not only Indian but Global outlook using techniques like Elliott wave, Time Cycles, Fibonacci Projections, Channels, Sensex in Gold (real money), PE ratio,PB ratio, etc.

nifty wave

In September we saw strong pullback in Indian markets from lower levels and prices rallied by almost 3000 points on Sensex and 1000 points on Nifty. However, after approaching the multi-year resistance line which has been ending the up move since more than 5 years worked this time as well and prices finally closed the month within the body of previous month. If we ignore the closing and consider only highs and lows we can see a higher high and higher low formation. A move above …………. will be a strong positive sign. Sensex in Gold – real money gives correct picture of why majority of stocks are at new lows!
In current research we have showed Bank Nifty relative chart along with Nifty which shows that why Banking sector as a whole should ……… for months to come. …….that will be starting probably post mid 2014 …
Sensex PE ratio / PB ratioa tool many believe to be a fundamental measure but for us it provides more of technical perspective and helps to understand how markets have been trending along with it.
On currency front, when everyone was panicking we have mentioned 70 levels as very important as it is 1.618 * wave i and we can clearly see prices stopped its uptrend near this level and formed an inside monthly bar. This indicates there is halt in the …..
International precious metals both Gold and Silver has formed a monthly inside bar and should also continue to move sideways for digesting the multi-month down move. This time we are showing Silver long term chart and why this metal should also underperform along with Gold. The euphoria has slowly subsided in previous metals along with Indian currency as well.
US markets have not been doing much and all the negative news about US Government shutdown has not impacted their markets at all. In fact S&P500 closed positive by more than half a percent when the concerns were looming about US default a probability if they fail to raise the debt ceiling. It seems US stock market is not too concerned about what economists believe about Government shutdown and debt, after all for us markets are supreme and news is just a technical indicator.
This time our stock pick from Indian markets is Capital Goods heavy weight L&T and we should have ….. value of this stock in future. Overall, September had lot of emotional flux for both bulls and bears trading Indian markets and was relatively muted for other assets most of which formed an inside bar – DJIA, Gold, Silver!!!

Fed’s Fisher says taper decision is fuelling uncertainty

taper-decisionIf Richard Fisher, head of the Dallas Fed, is sure of anything it’s that when it comes to monetary policy uncertainty matters.

That was an argument Mr Fisher says he raised last month when his colleagues at the US central bank met to decide whether to pull back the Fed’s stimulus programme.

In a speech on Thursday, Mr Fisher explained that the Fed’s decision not to taper could lead people to question their understanding of the rules:

The recent decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to maintain the pace of its large-scale asset purchases in the face of a generally improving labour market outlook and a widespread perception within financial markets, right or wrong, that the Fed had telegraphed a dialing back of the rate of purchases may have increased uncertainty about the future path of monetary policy. That was one argument raised against the decision not to taper. I know, because I made the argument, and I was not alone.

While the Fed’s decision confused the markets last month, Mr Fisher said that bigger surprises – which he calls Black Swans – can create paradigm shifts in the markets and lead to crises. He lists events such as the Great Depression and the 2006 housing market collapse as examples and, worryingly, says that a default on US debt would be in that league:

If the U.S. government defaults on its debt later this month, we’ll have a third example. The unthinkable will have become real, and the “full faith and credit” of the United States will be a mirage rather than accepted fact.

Mr Fisher does not have a vote on the Fed’s Open Market Committee this year.

Weakening Rupee headache for Jewellery traders


Jewellery traders in the Tex city are facing a serious slump in their gold business owing to the rising price of the yellow metal on one side and the fall in rupee value on the other side. Worried over the declining sale, traders have demanded that excise duty on the precious metal be reduced, so as to ease imports from other countries, which might help stabilize the rates.


President of the Coimbatore Jewelers Association K Krishnamoorthy said the two major reasons for rise in gold price are the value falling of rupee against the US dollar and the lack of gold metal in the market. “The import of gold was not stopped officially. The excise duty on it was hiked four times in a year. The excise duty in 2012-13 was 4 per cent. It is 10 per cent now. This has let to an increase of 16 per cent in gold price,” said Krishnamoorthy.


“The Central government should reduce the excise duty on gold to the earlier levels of 4 per cent. Only then will the jewellery trade revive,”  he added.


“The season from mid-August to Deepavali is the peak period for gold trade. But, the rupee crisis and hike in excise duty has hit the industry at a wrong time,” he complained.


Cement Stocks Continue to Break Down

Shares of India’s top cement majors are effort in today’s trade even as the benchmark

indices are showing flag of hurdle back.



Ambuja Cements, part of Swiss major Hoclim, slipped below Rs 160 on the BSE and is currently trading at Rs 159.15 at 10:35 am. Its sister-concern ACC too, continues to trade weak as the counter continues to remain weak below Rs 1,100 mark. The company’s stock is trading at Rs 1,068.05 currently.


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India,japan seek early agreement on civil nuclear pact

TOKYO – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh agreed on Wednesday to speed up talks on a deal to allow Japan to export nuclear plants and to strengthen security cooperation as both sides keep a wary eye on China’s military clout.

“In the political and security area, maritime security cooperation will further be strengthened … On civil nuclear cooperation, negotiation will be accelerated toward the early conclusion of the agreement,” Abe told a ceremony alongside Manmohan Singh.

Unable to rely on a coal sector crippled by supply shortages and mired in scandals, India is pushing ahead with constructing nuclear reactors despite global jitters over safety. Hundreds of millions of Indians still live without power and factories suffer frequent blackouts.

A civil nuclear energy pact with India would give Japanese nuclear technology firms such as Toshiba Corp and Hitachi Ltd access to India’s fast-growing market when they search for opportunities overseas to offset an anti-nuclear backlash at home in response to the Fukushima radiation crisis.

Sequester dents US earnings, but full impact still unclear


The US federal government began implementing across-the-board spending cuts last month, known formally as sequestration.The US federal government began implementing across-the-board spending cuts last month, known formally as sequestration.A range of US companies are warning investors that sequestration is starting to bite, but executives are still unclear how deep the wound will be.

The US federal government began implementing across-the-board spending cuts last month, known formally as sequestration but more commonly called “the sequester.”

It has meant everything from furloughs for air traffic controllers to fewer planes for the US Navy to smaller subsidies for farmers. So far this earnings period, executives from Lockheed Martin to IBM and Delta Airlines are flagging how those US budget cuts cost them some sales in the first quarter. But the bigger concern is how much they might lose in the months to come as the budget cuts begin to really take hold – and getting a detailed forecast has proven hard to come by.

 “Sequestration is a reality, but it’s unfolding slowly at this time,” United Technologies Chief Executive Louis Chenevert said in an interview Tuesday. “We will understand more what sequestration does as we get to the end of the year.” Market strategists said the fears about sequestration feed into a broader decline in confidence, underlined by a recent rise in unemployment claims and decline in factory activity in parts of the country.

“These CEOs saying it’s all three to four months out, it kind of plays into that,” said JJ Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade. “The sequester is one more data point for people to worry about.” Yet investors are not spooked. Since March 1, when the sequester kicked in, the S&P is up 4 per cent, continuing a sharp run that started last November.