3rd attempt (within 11 months) to take out heavy resistance around US$1,790.00-1,800.00 failed and Gold clearly broke down from bearish wedge in October
COT Data again pretty bearish for gold and silver
Mining Stocks crashed down through support and 200-MA
US-Dollar in short term uptrend since mid of september, so far no clear trend reversal
Recession in Europe, slower demand from China and India
Arguments for higher prices:
Gold & Silver bounced impulsively from oversold levels. This price action has a very bullish character.
Gold clearly above 200-MA (US$1,665.66)
Reversal at Fibonacci retracement, this confirms “correction” within uptrend
Gold/Silver ratio heading lower again, creates MACD buy signal for precious metals
Longer term Gold in similar correction pattern like 2008/2009. Breakout to US$2,000.00 expected to happen in summer 2013
New uptrend in precious metals since august 2012 that should carry gold up to US$1,850.00 and 1,900.00 until spring 2013.
US-Dollar Death Cross (long-term 200-MA broke above its short-term 50-MA in mid of october). This signals dollar weakness!
November very bullish seasonals. Seasonality until spring very promising.
Never fight the FED. Unlimited QE -> money printing all over the world will push asset prices in all sectors higher…
Throughout history, periods of massive money creation have always been inflationary and this time should be no different.
Santa Claus/Year End Rally has probably started yesterday
massive tension and escalation in middle east (Israel & Gaza, maybe Egypt and other states to get involved …???)
After the initial impulsive bounce from oversold levels Gold has been consolidating between US$1,740.00 and US$1,705.00 in a bullish fashion. Now Gold looks ready to break out above US$1,740.00 very soon. This breakout will start a heavy wave of buying/short covering and should bring gold very fast to next resistance at US$1,790.00 / US$1,800.00. Here another setback must be expected. Overall I continue to believe that Gold will move up to US$1,850.00 and around 1,900.00US$ until spring 2013.
Any break below US$1,705.00 and especially US$1,696.00 would be very bearish but is not expected.
Nothing has changed
Precious Metals bull market continues and is moving step by step closer to the final parabolic phase (could start in 2013 & last for 2-3 years or maybe later)